Ebook Download Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, by Richards J. Heuer Jr., Randolph H. Pherson
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Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, by Richards J. Heuer Jr., Randolph H. Pherson
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This book takes the relatively new concept of structured analytic techniques, defines its place in a taxonomy of analytic methods, and moves it a giant leap forward. It describes 50 techniques that are divided into eight categories. There are techniques for:
- Decomposition and Visualization
- Idea Generation
- Scenarios and Indicators
- Hypothesis Generation and Testing
- Cause and Effect
- Challenge Analysis
- Conflict Management
- Decision Support
Each structured technique involves a step-by-step process that externalizes an individual analyst s thinking in a manner that makes it readily apparent to others, thereby enabling it to be shared, built on, and easily critiqued by others. This structured and transparent process combined with the intuitive input of subject matter experts is expected to reduce the risk of analytic error.
Our current high tech, global environment increasingly requires collaboration between analysts with different areas of expertise and analysts representing different organizational perspectives. Structured analytic techniques are the ideal process for guiding the interaction of analysts within a small team or group. Each step in a technique prompts relevant discussion within the team, and such discussion generates and evaluates substantially more divergent information and more new ideas than a team that does not use a structured process.
By defining the domain of structured analytic techniques, providing a manual for using and teaching these techniques, and outlining procedures for evaluating and validating these techniques, this book lays a common ground for continuing improvement of how analysis is done. These techniques are especially needed in the field of intelligence analysis where analysts typically deal with incomplete, ambiguous and sometimes deceptive information. However, these practical tools for analysis are also useful in a wide variety of professions including law enforcement, medicine, finance, and business.
- Sales Rank: #347980 in Books
- Brand: Brand: CQ Press
- Published on: 2010-03-16
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 1.00" h x 6.50" w x 7.90" l, 1.30 pounds
- Binding: Plastic Comb
- 368 pages
Features
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
Intelligence community (IC) stalwarts Richards Heuer and Randy Pherson have addressed a gaping lacuna in IC scholarship with their Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Finally, we have a work that discusses not only the hows but also the whys of analysis. Like Heuer's previous Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, the current volume is destined to become an instant classic; I intend to integrate it into my Intelligence and Security Studies curriculum at the earliest possible opportunity. --Carl Jensen, Director, Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, The University of Mississippi.
Policy advisers cling to the belief that they can simply think their way through difficult conflicts, despite experimental evidence that shows that they do no better than non-experts. Heuer and Pherson's Structured Analytic Techniques shows how evidence-based techniques can greatly improve experts' judgmental forecasting and decision making. This is the new Bible for decision makers facing conflicts. --J. Scott Armstrong, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Everyone says that intelligence organizations need to consider alternatives and challenge assumptions, but only with Structured Analytic Techniques do we have a detailed presentation of the ways to proceed. It should prove invaluable to practitioners and insightful to scholars. --Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University
About the Author
Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his path breaking book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, which is used throughout the Intelligence Community. Retired from the CIA, Mr. Heuer has worked with the Intelligence Community in various roles for over five decades. He has won multiple awards for his research and writing, including the CIA Seal Medallion for development of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses technique.
Randolph H. Pherson, President of Pherson Associates, LLC, has spearheaded teaching and developing analytic techniques and critical thinking skills in the Intelligence Community. He served for 28 years in the Intelligence Community, last serving as National Intelligence Officer for Latin America. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal and author of the Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques.
Most helpful customer reviews
38 of 41 people found the following review helpful.
Indispensable reference for forecasters
By E. M. Van Court
Anyone involved in any serious forecasting of politics or other social disciplines must have, read, and use this book. Rather than an etherial, academic reflection on why analysis is relevant, or 'what is the role of intelligence analysis', or a mathmatical treatise on Games and Decisions, this is a working reference and practical guide to structured analytical techniques. Although the title specifies "for intelligence analysis", the methodology is applicable to problem sets that are only partially or non-quantifiable, and especially applicable to issues that are ambiguous and where only incomplete information is available.
In many ways, this is the sequel to Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, also by Richard Heuer. Where "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" focused on analytical biases, with a limited discussion of rigorous approaches to intelligence analysis, "Structured Analytic Techniques" approaches similar issues from a more pragmatic direction. As valuable as the discussion of cognative biases is, the comprehensive set of analystical tools in "Structured Analytic Techniques" does more (when applied) to mitigate many of the biases than mere knowledge of their existance, and the analytical techniques will counteract many biases, even when those biases have not been identified.
Of particular interest is the emphasis on analytical teams and group analysis, both the strengths and weaknesses, and methods for maximizing the strengths and mitigating the weaknesses.
The general pattern of the overall methodology (and chapter titles) is -
-Decomposition and Visualization - to break the information into small elements and arrange these elements (often from diverse source) into a rational pattern.
-Idea Generation - brain storming, but rigorous brain storming that encourages a broad range of perspectives and invites the dissenting and minority opinions to be heard.
-Scenarios and Indicators - develop alternate courses for events to unfold in and the signals that a specific course has been taken.
-Hypothesis Generation and Testing - coming up with explainations given the available information, and figuring out things that will confirm or deny the explaination. Not a trivial problem, but one that is often done in a haphazard fashion. The section on deception detection is especially interesting, and is something not normally addressed outside of intelligence circles.
-Assessment of Cause and Effect - although it seems obvious, the common analytical failure of mirror-imaging necessitates a direct check on the most basic aspects of an analysis.
-Challage Analysis - where 'assessment of cause and effect' is something of a sophisticated fact check, the 'challange analysis' phase is a methodical and critical review of the logic and critical premises and assumptions of an analysis.
-Conflict Management - a chapter expressly about leveraging disagreement in analysis. This is an especially valuable chapter as most earlier works have been written with an emphasis on individual analysts rather than groups and teams.
-Decision support - the ultimate purpose of intelligence and many other kinds of analysis. In the political and military realms (in a democratic nation) the purpose of intelligence is to give leadership the information (both current and predictive) to make decisions. Everything done up to this point is irrelevant if it cannot be effectively communicated to the individuals making the decision and bearing the responsibility for that decision.
And finally...
- Evaluation of Structured Analytic Techniques - Here, I think the intent was good, but it would be easy to use this to justify personal peeves. Techniques are only as good as the users and their rigor. If a technique is used sloppily, the technique isn't bad, the user is. Thankfully, this was much more of a "way forward" than specific methodologies.
In a comb binding with a heavy weight cover and tabs, this is meant for the desk of conference table, not to gather dust on a bookshelf. The range of techniques, the approaches to selecting and using the techniques within a structured methodology, and clarity of this book make it a worthwhile investment for professionals in many fields. A little more depth in the practice of some of the techniques might have been a plus, but the framework of every technique and references for more detailed instruction are provided.
This is the definitive work on the subject, and will remain a timely and valuable text for decades.
E. M. Van Court
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent textbook
By Dennis
One of my required college textbooks. An excellent book in that it lays out the various structured analytic techniques in a clear and easily understood manner. The book is also tabbed which makes it easier to find the material or section that you need.
9 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent Field Manual
By V Gordon
I rated this book as a five stars because I have been able apply the content in real world situations and improve my performance. This is an excellent compilation of analysis techniques for decision making. This book is billed as a book for the intelligence community but I find it just as applicable for common business or project decisisons. I would describe this as more of a tool box of techniques that can be utilized to flesh out hidden issues, biases and/or assumptions. Each technique is described, however to effectively utilize the technique you may have to go to the original sources to get additional detail and guidance. This is not a criticism because if each technique was explained fully, you'd have a book that was 900+ pages. For a flavor of the content of this book check out this link:
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